AF1 quarterfinals will measure momentum, stability and survival

The opening round of the Arena Football One playoffs presents four teams with four distinctly different identities: Michigan is the league’s hottest team, Kentucky is its greatest mystery, Minnesota has become increasingly dangerous and Washington has survived long enough to believe it can disrupt the entire bracket.

The two quarterfinal winners will advance to difficult semifinal matchups. The Kentucky-Michigan winner will visit top-seeded Nashville, while the Washington-Minnesota winner will travel to defending champion and No. 2 seed Albany.

Nashville and Albany have earned the right to wait. The Kats finished 11-1, won their final nine games and outscored opponents 735-434. Albany went 9-3 with a 652-487 scoring margin, although two of its three losses came during the final month. The Firebirds remain the defending Arena Crown champions, but Nashville enters the postseason as the clearer favorite.

That makes this weekend a test of more than talent. Michigan and Minnesota have continuity, momentum and home-field advantage. Washington has the dangerous freedom of a sixth seed playing with little to lose. Kentucky has enough proven stars to threaten anybody, but only if those players return after a contract dispute turned the Barrels into an entirely different team over the final two weeks.

No. 4 Kentucky at No. 5 Michigan

Kentucky, despite finishing 7-5 and qualifying to host, will visit Michigan at 4 p.m. EDT Saturday at the Dow Event Center in Saginaw. Truist Arena at Northern Kentucky University was unavailable, sending the Barrels back on the road for a game they earned the right to play at home. 

No two AF1 playoff teams arrive from more opposite directions. Michigan finished 6-6 after winning its final four regular-season games. Kentucky lost its final three after a 7-2 start, including consecutive defeats by Minnesota and Beaumont by a combined score of 110-28.

The Arsenal’s late surge was legitimate. Their final four regular-season victories came against Albany, Minnesota, Washington and Oceanside by a combined score of 203-136. Michigan handed Albany its first loss in nearly two years, defeated Minnesota 41-34, routed Washington 64-36 and closed the season with a 41-27 victory over Oceanside.

Michigan quarterback Malik Henry is the most statistically productive passer in the quarterfinal round. He completed 236 of 445 passes for 2,700 yards, a league-leading 59 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions. His 225 passing yards per game ranked third among qualified AF1 quarterbacks, behind Albany’s Sam Castronova and Nashville’s Tyler Kulka. Michigan’s official AF1 statistical page credits Henry with a 99 passer rating and 47-yard season long.

Henry has three proven receiving options. Daniel Williams III caught 77 passes for 829 yards and 20 touchdowns, Jairus Grissom had 64 receptions for 807 yards and 19 scores, and Trevante Long added 54 catches for 425 yards and 11 touchdowns. Together, the trio produced 195 receptions, 2,061 yards and 50 touchdowns.

Michigan’s defense is also peaking. In the regular-season finale, the Arsenal held Oceanside to 118 passing yards and recorded six sacks. Chris Fitzgerald had three, Jalen Jackson added two and Michael White contributed one. White finished the season with nine sacks, Fitzgerald had seven, and defensive backs Berdale Robins and Isaiah McFarland intercepted five passes apiece. Khai West led Michigan with 51 solo tackles and added three interceptions.

Kentucky defeated Michigan 34-26 in the April 12 season opener, but that result has limited value now. Dalton Oliver, not Darryl Overstreet Jr., quarterbacked Kentucky in that game, completing 13 of 22 passes for 190 yards and two touchdowns. Jalin Marshall caught seven passes for 110 yards and two scores, while Dezmon Epps returned a kickoff 50 yards for a touchdown. Henry threw for 244 yards and three touchdowns for Michigan, but completed only 23 of 48 attempts. 

The AF1 statistics explain what Kentucky was before its roster crisis. Overstreet completed 94 of 154 passes for 1,225 yards, 23 touchdowns and seven interceptions in six games. He also rushed for 59 yards and 10 touchdowns, giving him 33 total scores. Darius Prince caught 40 passes for 637 yards and 15 touchdowns. Defensive lineman Ezekiel “Zeke” Rose led the league with 11½ sacks, while defensive back Joe Powell recorded 48 solo tackles and four interceptions. Kentucky’s season statistics reflect a roster that was once good enough to defeat Nashville 37-36, the Kats’ only loss.

The difficult question is whether that roster actually returns. Most of Kentucky’s top players sat out the final two games during a contract dispute, forcing the Barrels to use a patchwork lineup. The playoff roster reportedly lists Overstreet, Prince, Rose and Powell again, but merely appearing on a roster and being prepared to play championship football are two separate matters.

Kentucky’s final game showed how far the emergency lineup had fallen. Receiver Dominick Hobdy played quarterback in a 50-20 loss at Beaumont, completing 11 of 21 passes for 120 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. Anthony McCrew Jr. led the receivers with four catches for 52 yards. Kentucky generated little pressure defensively and surrendered at least 47 points in each of its final three games.

Michigan averaged 44.1 points and allowed 43.5 during the regular season. Kentucky averaged 37.4 and allowed 40.1, but those full-season numbers obscure the dramatic late separation. Michigan scored 50.8 points per game during its four-game winning streak. Kentucky scored 23.3 and allowed 52.3 during its three-game skid.

If Overstreet, Prince, Rose and Powell return and play at their earlier level, Kentucky has enough talent to make this the weekend’s best game. If the contract dispute remains unresolved in any meaningful way, Henry and Michigan’s three-receiver attack should control it.

The disciplined pick is Michigan, 52-36. The Arsenal are stable, confident and playing their best football. Kentucky is trying to reconstruct a contender in less than a week.

No. 6 Washington at No. 3 Minnesota

Washington and Minnesota meet at 6 p.m. CDT Sunday at Amsoil Arena, only 15 days after the Monsters won their first meeting 56-42 on the same field.

Minnesota finished 8-4 with three consecutive victories, outscoring Kentucky, Washington and Beaumont 158-90. The Monsters averaged 41.8 points and allowed 37.1 during the season. Washington finished 5-7, averaged 35.3 points and allowed 41.3. The Wolfpack lost their final three games to Michigan, Nashville and Minnesota by a combined score of 188-108.

The numbers favor Minnesota, but they do not guarantee an easy afternoon. The Monsters trailed Beaumont 40-29 with less than two minutes remaining in their regular-season finale before Ja’Vonte Johnson threw touchdown passes to Shiloh Flanagan and LeDarian McAllister. The winning score came with 22 seconds remaining, and Minnesota preserved the 42-40 victory with a strip sack.

Johnson completed 21 of 36 passes for 242 yards and five touchdowns with one interception against Beaumont. McAllister caught six passes for 78 yards and three scores, while Flanagan produced nine receptions for 97 yards and two touchdowns and added a 2-yard scoring run. Minnesota’s final regular-season victory demonstrated both the explosiveness and the inconsistency that have defined the Monsters.

Johnson finished the season with 1,836 passing yards, 43 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. His 46.5% completion rate is a concern, but he ranks third in the league in touchdown passes and remains dangerous when plays break down. He also rushed for 83 yards and five touchdowns.

Jarvai Flowers leads Minnesota’s current receiving group with league season totals of 48 catches for 735 yards and 14 touchdowns. Flanagan has 40 receptions for 389 yards and eight scores, McAllister has 26 catches for 338 yards and nine touchdowns, and Carlos Thompson Jr. has added 251 yards and six scores on 15 receptions.

Minnesota also possesses the quarterfinal round’s best rushing résumé. Shannon Brooks still leads the AF1 with 237 yards on 53 carries despite appearing in only seven games, although his availability remains uncertain. Claude Davis has rushed for 142 yards and six touchdowns, while Johnson supplies the additional quarterback-running threat. The league’s Minnesota tables list the Monsters at 54.3 rushing yards per game, more than twice Washington’s average.

Defensively, Minnesota has two players capable of changing the game without warning. Delvon Randall finished second in the AF1 with seven interceptions and led the Monsters with 56 solo tackles. Chei Hill recorded nine sacks and four tackles for loss. Dontorian Best recovered three fumbles, and Javonte Haynes added 37 solo tackles.

Washington knows exactly what went wrong in the first meeting. The Wolfpack stayed close for a half, trailing 29-20, before Minnesota scored the first 21 points of the third quarter. A Washington kickoff fumble was returned for a touchdown, Johnson connected with Flowers on a deep scoring pass, and the Monsters produced 10 points directly from special teams through the fumble return and two deuces.

Andrew McBride, making his first Washington start, completed 15 of 34 passes for 163 yards and five touchdowns with one interception. Rookie Brandon Lombana caught three passes for 61 yards and two touchdowns, including a 41-yard score. Eugene Ford produced six tackles, an interception and a two-point return of a blocked conversion. Minnesota’s 56-42 victory was competitive until Washington’s middle-game mistakes became too expensive.

The quarterback situation may change Sunday. Washington says Jaiave Magalei is expected to return after dealing with a broken bone in his non-throwing hand and a separated shoulder. Magalei completed 99 of 195 passes for 925 yards, 18 touchdowns and five interceptions and rushed for 75 yards and six scores. The Wolfpack believe their offense was more consistent with him available. Washington’s playoff announcement called his anticipated return a significant postseason development.

The receiving corps gives either quarterback workable options. Deshon Williams caught 48 passes for 630 yards and 14 touchdowns, Aakiel Greer had 54 receptions for 575 yards and 11 scores, Lombana finished with 20 catches for 252 yards, and Tyler Stevens averaged 16.2 yards on his 14 receptions. Fullback Undra Hendrix rushed for 95 yards and caught seven passes for another 77.

Washington’s best chance rests with its secondary. Byron Edwards led the AF1 with nine interceptions, returning two for touchdowns, while Tywon Buckley produced 49 solo tackles, 13 assists and three interceptions. Machiah Lee intercepted four passes, and Eugene Ford had three. Michael Badejo led the pass rush with seven sacks. Washington’s individual statistics show a defense built to steal possessions, which is precisely what an underdog needs on the road.

Minnesota should win if it protects the football, handles Washington’s kickoff pressure and prevents Edwards from changing the game. The Monsters have the deeper collection of offensive playmakers and have already demonstrated that Washington cannot match them when Johnson gets time and special teams create short fields.

The pick is Minnesota, 50-40. Washington is dangerous enough to stay close, particularly if Magalei returns effectively, but the Monsters have earned the third seed and should advance to their semifinal rematch at Albany.